Statistics Canada reported that exports have fallen by 10.8% per month in the past month, a monthly decline since the pandemic. The callback is based on broad, down 10 of 11 categories and is sharpest among car exports, down nearly 23%.
“April marks the first month for Canada to face full tariff packages, most notably automatic tariffs, which has created a huge headwind for the auto trade,” said TD economist Marc Ercolao.
Imports also fell by 3.5% as new trade barriers go in both directions. Vehicles and parts imports are 17.7%, while industrial equipment, electronics and consumer goods are also declining. From a quantitative perspective, exports fell 8.3%, and imports fell 1.9%.
Exports to the United States
The U.S. is at the center of a recession, with exports south of the border falling 16% in April, while non-U.S. markets rose 3%. Although exports to other countries reached record levels, they were not enough to offset the losses of Canada’s largest trading partner.
As a result, Canada’s trade surplus with the United States narrowed to just $3.6 billion, the smallest in more than four years. Imports from the United States also fell sharply, down 11%, while imports from other parts of the world climbed 8%.
Trade value fell under a steady Canadian dollar in April, driven by a huge dollar weakness. Judge Katherine of CIBC estimated that exports fell by 8% in US dollars and imports were only 0.9%.
Growth is slower, lowering may
BMO senior economist Shelly Kaushik noted that the trade strike in the second quarter is expected to be significant in the second quarter.
“These numbers fit our expectations for second-quarter economic growth minus trade,” she wrote.
After helping drive a strong Q1, trade is likely to cause obstacles now. The judge said the decline in exports, coupled with the speed of production and softening of the labour market, supported the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates again at a quarter-point reduction rate at its meetings in July and September.
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Last modified: June 5, 2025
