That will be 100 basis points (a percentage point) lower than BMO’s current forecast. The prediction is expected to reach 2.50 % later this year.
BMO has released the latest forecasts based on the implementation of US tariffs. Most Canadian goods are 20 %, and oil and natural gas are initially scheduled to take effect today. However, in the eleventh hour, President Trump announced that he had delayed 30 days and expanded a similar agreement reached with Mexico.
BMO economist Michael Gregory Canada mortgage loan trend If the tariff is finally effective, the more aggressive cutting cycle may return to the table.
He said: “If the tariff is actually reached, the -150bps will enter the possibility field again.”
He added that this will promote the difference in interest rates in Canada-the United States more than -225 BPS, close to the “historical extremes” set in 1997.
However, at the same time, because of any action now, Gregory said that the tariff “has changed from basic certainty to the current risk.”
BOC policy interest rate predicts 6 major banks
Update: February 4, 2025
Tariffs can prove that the interest rate action of Canadian emergency banks is reasonable
Economists at the State Bank believe that tariffs are imminent, and there is a “strong argument” that emergency situations may be more than the usual tax rate.
They wrote: “In order to reduce the impact of Canada’s actual economy and support financial conditions, we believe that there will be great arguments on the emergency situation of BOC reduction or reduction rate.” The upper half of 3.25 %.
They added: “Please note that emergency operations will claim at least at least 50 basis points.”
In addition to the immediately of action, the bank also predicts that the reducing reduction in March and April (each total of 25 basis points) may reduce the policy interest rate to 2.00 %, by spring.
In addition to affecting the slowdown of the Bank of Canada, it is expected that tariffs will also put major pressure on Canada’s US dollar and economic growth, and warn that they may fall into a decline in the economy. If the tariff continues, experts also emphasize the risk of inflation pressure.
However, all these are still speculative and depend on the situation in the next 30 days.
As part of a delayed tariff transaction, Canada has promised to work closely with US officials to strengthen border security and the flow of fentanyl. This includes expanding its $ 1.3 billion border protection plan, listed Carter as a terrorist organization, and a new cross -border work force.
Canada also invested 200 million Canadian dollars to charges with drug trafficking and appointing the leadership of the Fentnis.
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Bank of Canada BMO BOC BOC policy interest rate Donald Trump’s interest rate prediction interest rate Michael Gregar national bank policy interest rate tariff
Last modification: February 4, 2025
