The annual report from the association representing 15,000 real estate agents said its preliminary surveys and economic modeling showed the drag on sales could intensify as cross-border investment slows and sales activity declines.
However, it said if a recession is accompanied by significant job losses, the pool of buyers will shrink and sales will fall in 2025.
The forecast expects total sales to rise 13.9% this year as “lower borrowing costs may ultimately have the expected stimulating effect” of boosting sales in the first half of the year before stabilizing to historical levels in the remainder of 2025.
The average home price for all homes in the 15 jurisdictions represented by the association, from Whistler to South Delta, is expected to rise 4.1 percent to $1.3 million.
The report said forecasts for this year are similar to what they expected for 2024, but the market is now benefiting from significantly lower borrowing costs at the start of the year, which the authors say should provide the necessary stimulus to reach price forecasts for 2025.
Its forecast for 2024 called for overall sales growth of 8%, but sales ended up rising less than 2% from the previous year.
According to the report, almost every year there is a plot twist in the report. This year it is the threat of US President-elect Trump to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods and the changes that the federal government is about to make.
“Political turmoil at the federal level in Canada and possible policies from a new Conservative government may have a negative impact on the housing market, although new policies may also have a positive impact on the market,” the forecast said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 17, 2025.
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Last modified: January 17, 2025
