Eric Herzberg
(Bloomberg) — Canadian retail sales rose sharply in November after falling slightly the previous month, pointing to a modest rebound in consumption in the fourth quarter.
Retailers’ revenue rose 1.2 per cent last month, according to Friday’s advance estimate from Statistics Canada. This would be the largest increase in five months.
The decline followed a 0.2% decline in October, which was weaker than expectations for a flat rate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. From a sales perspective, sales fell by 0.6% that month.
Sales fell in four of nine subsectors in October, led by a decline at food and beverage retailers. The agency said beer, wine and liquor retailers contributed the most to the decline in core retail sales, along with labor disruptions in British Columbia, Canada’s westernmost province.
Sales of motor vehicles and parts increased 0.6% in October, driven by new car and other motor vehicle dealers. Gasoline sales fell during the month.
Assuming the agency’s preliminary estimate is correct and there is no growth in December, retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in the final quarter of 2025. The retailer’s revenue was flat in the third quarter.
It’s the latest in a series of data showing Canada’s economy is performing better than expected even as U.S. tariffs hit exports and weaken business investment. Household consumption shrank in the third quarter, according to gross domestic product data, but strong retail sales at the end of the year suggested consumers were more resilient. This is despite slower population growth and higher interest rates on home renewal mortgages.
Part of the increase in spending may be due to a surge in household financial assets this year – rising values of North American stocks have boosted Canadians’ wealth. The Bank of Canada also cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year, taking some pressure off borrowers.
The central bank has signaled a longer-term pause on interest rates, with markets and most economists expecting policymakers to keep rates steady for much of 2026.
—With help from Mario Baker Ramirez.
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Last modified: December 19, 2025
