Author: Mathieu Dion
(Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government faces a decisive moment on Monday when the House of Commons votes on a proposed budget that would increase borrowing for military and infrastructure spending.
The budget must be passed to avoid triggering new elections. Carney’s Liberal caucus has 170 seats, two short of a majority, and as of Sunday morning it was unclear how all opposition members would vote.
Elizabeth May, the only elected member of the Green Party, told CBC that “at the moment, I’m opposed to the budget.” But she left the door open to changing her mind.
“Obviously, I’m in a dilemma and I’m still talking to ministers and representatives from the prime minister’s office and others to see what we can do by tomorrow afternoon to influence my vote,” she said on Sunday.
The fiscal plan released on November 4 projects that the deficit will increase by $167.3 billion over five years compared with the government’s previous forecast. Carney’s government has earmarked a significant increase in spending on new projects such as defense, housing and port expansion to help the country diversify export markets away from the United States.
If the government cannot find two negative votes to support the budget, it can still survive as long as at least four opposition MPs abstain. The left-leaning New Democratic Party, with seven seats, is in the midst of a leadership battle and has a heavy debt burden. Many political observers believe its group of lawmakers is most likely to help the government on Monday.
“No, I’m not worried. I think there are all kinds of good reasons for different members or the opposition parties to want the budget passed,” Cabinet Minister Dominique LeBlanc told Radio-Canada.
Carney’s Liberals won the popular vote and the most seats in an April election in which the main issue was U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his aggressive posture toward Canada. But most current polls show the Liberals and Pierre Pliyev’s Conservatives being very close.
“One hundred per cent of our MPs oppose the expensive Carney Card budget, which will drive up the cost of food, housing and living for Canadians,” Poliyev said Friday.
Canada has not held two elections in a 12-month period since 1979 and 1980. At that time, the second election occurred because of a failed budget vote.
Given the fragile economic situation, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne called on opposition members on Friday to support his document: “This is not the time for political games, this is not the time for posturing, this is the time to fight for Canada, fight together, rise to the occasion and rise above politics.”
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Bloomberg Budget Budget 2025 Dominique LeBlanc Elisabeth May Francois Philippe Champagne Green Party Liberal Mark Carney Vote of No Confidence Pierre Pliyev
Last modified: November 16, 2025
