Report says housing starts fell in most of southern Ontario through first nine months of 2025
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A report from the Missing Middle Class Initiative at the University of Ottawa, commissioned by the committee, said housing starts in 34 cities in the region fell by more than a third in the first three quarters compared with the same period from January to September 2021 to 2024.
The study said apartment construction starts fell by 51% in the first three quarters, and ground-level housing starts fell by 43%. However, dedicated rents increased by 42% compared to the previous four years.
Committee chairman Richard Lyall said the figures showed “we are staring into the abyss” when it comes to homebuilding.
“The findings of this report are alarming but corroborate what the homebuilding industry and our builders have been experiencing and saying for some time,” Lyle said in a release.
“The new home market is already in a downturn. This is a particularly dark time for those working in residential construction. There are massive job losses across the board. Projects are being put on hold, which will have a significant trickle-down effect on Ontario’s economy.”
The decline in new housing starts comes as affordability remains a top issue holding back some would-be buyers in the Greater Toronto Area housing market.
According to the latest data released by the Toronto Region Real Estate Board, the average sales price of homes in the region in October was $1,054,372.
The University of Ottawa report is based on data obtained from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Altus Group. It also graded cities in five categories related to home starts and sales, with half receiving an F, nine receiving a D and eight others receiving a C or higher.
The study shows that falling housing starts are leading to massive job losses. The report estimates that in the first nine months of this year, fewer housing starts led to 35,377 fewer person-years in employment than the same period in the previous three years.
This is based on estimates that it takes 3.8 person-years of employment to build a single-family house, and 1.5 person-years of employment to build an apartment.
“Employment in the sector is down, which points to the impact a lack of housing starts and sales is having on the industry and the economy,” Mike Moffatt, economist and founder of the Missing Middle Class Project, said in a statement.
“The negative trend in employment continues, with a significant reduction in work volumes in the residential construction industry.”
The federal government aims to increase housing construction, committing $25 billion in housing spending over the next five years in last month’s budget.
The federal budget draws attention to CMHC’s current estimate that 430,000 to 480,000 new housing units per year will be needed over the next decade to restore affordability to 2019 levels.
That would be equivalent to about twice the current rate of home construction nationwide.
Nationally, housing starts fell 17% in October from September, the housing agency said last month. CMHC said the decline was due to lower construction starts in Ontario and British Columbia.
Actual housing starts in centers with populations of 10,000 or more fell 3% year over year.
However, the total number of centers with a population of 10,000 or more is 197,207 so far this year, up from 188,660 at the same time in 2024.
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Dashboard Home Construction Home Starts Housing Supply Missing Middle Initiative Ontario Residential Building Council Richard Lyall sammy hudes The Canadian Press
Last modified: December 1, 2025
