Author: Laura Dylan Kane
(Bloomberg) — Canadians have little confidence that a trade deal with the United States will be reached within the next six months after President Donald Trump scuttled talks over an anti-tariff advertising campaign launched by Ontario.
Some 67 per cent of Canadians say a deal to reduce U.S. tariffs is unlikely within the next six months, according to a poll conducted by Nanos Research Group for Bloomberg News. About 28% said it was possible and 3% were unsure.
Trump halted all trade talks with Canada in late October over an Ontario ad that featured excerpts from a radio address by former President Ronald Reagan. British Prime Minister Mark Carney said talks on steel, aluminum and energy were making progress.
Surveys suggest Canadians may understand Carney’s failure so far to reach a deal with the mercurial U.S. president. Still, their patience may wear thin the longer the trade standoff drags on and the economic pain intensifies.
Trump has imposed sectoral tariffs on Canadian metals, cars and softwood lumber, causing job losses and cooling business investment. He has also imposed tariffs on many goods that do not comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement he signed during his first term, adding to uncertainty.
Carney apologized to Trump for the ad campaign, even though the prime minister had no role in its creation — Ontario Premier Doug Ford spearheaded the strategy. Ford eventually pulled the ads, but only after they aired during the first two games of the World Series.
Trump also threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods in response to the ads, although the levy has not yet been implemented.
This isn’t the first time Carney’s government has come close to a deal before talks collapsed.
Carney was elected in April on a pledge to negotiate a comprehensive economic and security deal with the United States. In June, he set a mid-July deadline for a deal, but Trump canceled talks on Canada’s plan to impose a digital services tax on big tech companies.
Carney canceled the tax to allow negotiations to resume, but the two countries exceeded the deadline and Trump raised tariffs on August 1.
Following Carney’s visit to the White House in early October, the two sides engaged in intense discussions over a deal that would waive steel and aluminum tariffs in exchange for greater access to Canadian energy. But Trump’s outrage over the Ontario ad put an end to those discussions.
Carney recently acknowledged that a comprehensive deal was unlikely before the USMCA was reviewed in July 2026. Canada, Mexico and the United States have all launched public consultation processes ahead of the review, which is widely expected to turn into a sweeping renegotiation.
But surveys show Canadians are also pessimistic about the future of the deal. About 60% think it will be updated with major or minor changes, while 30% expect it to be scrapped entirely.
The agreement is critical to maintaining tariff-free access to the U.S. market for the vast majority of Canadian goods. But Trump has violated its terms by imposing sectoral tariffs. He said the U.S. doesn’t want to buy cars from Canada, and he complained about other industries protected by the USMCA, such as Canadian dairy.
The poll, which surveyed 1,045 Canadians online and by phone between Oct. 27 and Oct. 30, had a margin of error of three percentage points, 19 out of 20 times.
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Last modified: November 13, 2025
