Erik Hertzberg and Dana Morgan
(Bloomberg) Analysts say Canada’s economy is expected to recover weakly in the second half of 2025 as the export phase gradually rebounds.
According to a survey by Bloomberg economists, GDP will grow by 0.5% in the third quarter. That’s higher than the 0.1% forecast in the survey last month and contracted 1.6% in the second quarter.
Economists rose 3.3% after collapsed at an annualized rate of 27% in the last quarter.
U.S. President Donald Trump imposes a 35% tariff on Canadian goods that are not in line with the U.S.-Mexico deal. Companies are increasingly transporting under trade agreements, but exemptions do not apply to sector tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and copper, which has caused the greatest pain in Canada.
The survey shows that Canada’s economy will strive to recover for some time, with an average annual growth of 1.2% and 1.1% in 2025 and 2026.
“It’s an economic damage to the economy,” said Emmai, chief strategist at Email Global Asset Management’s multi-asset solutions, said via email.
“I doubt the trend will outperform the trend in 2026, and Canada may remain less than 2% until at least mid-next year.”
Analysts believe that weighing the uncertainty of the trade outlook for business investments is expected to drop 0.5% in the third quarter. Still, this improved compared to previous surveys when economists expected a 4.3% decline.
In the last three months of the year, the unemployment rate was 7.3%. Inflation rates are expected to hover at the 2% target of the Canadian bank within the forecast range.
Statistics Canada data released on Friday showed that the economy will expand by 0.7% in the third quarter. Banks in Canada are expected to grow by about 1%.
From September 19 to September 24, up to 30 economists were investigated.
– With the assistance of Mario Baker Ramirez.
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Last modified: September 28, 2025
