Mortgage

Canadian housing began to stabilize in June, with Toronto’s downturn as Vancouver emerged

The seasonally adjusted total housing operating rate (SAAR) reached 283,734 units, slightly higher than the previous month’s 282,705.

Urban centers account for 261,705 of these units, while rural starts are estimated at 22,029.

The six-month trend measure is a smoothing indicator of momentum, up 3.6% to 253,081 units, the highest since the beginning of 2023.

The overall rise is driven by a few regions, with most of the gains in British Columbia. Starting from the province, the province has grown by 28,000 to 64,200 units, which is due to the surge in multi-unit construction in Vancouver, where it actually started to jump 74%.

Moderate growth in New Brunswick and PEI also helped to increase the total number of Atlantic regions.

By contrast, seven provinces, including Ontario, Quebec and Alberta, began to decline. Real housing in Toronto began to plummet 40%, while in June 2024, Montreal’s decline was 8%, driven by fewer multi-unit projects.

Despite the “healthy” rate of housing start, TD Economics expects some of the recent momentum to fade.

“Oversupply in major markets, coupled with increasing rents with slower populations, and high construction costs and near-term economic uncertainty may affect sales activity,” wrote TD economist Marc Ercolao.

Still, he noted: “Housing began to exceed expectations in June, helping to start a record growth in the second quarter.”

This should provide a recent headwind for residential investment, he said, “a buffer of weakness in other parts of the Canadian economy over the past few months.”

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Last modified: July 16, 2025

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