Statistics Canada’s workforce survey was released this morning and showed 83,000 jobs added in June, destroying the least job growth since January.
After reaching a nearly decade-long high last month, the unemployment rate also fell by 0.1 percentage point to 6.9%. Economists expect it to hold 7% or increase 7.1%. The employment rate is up to 60.9%.
However, youth employment remains a weakness in the June data. The unemployment rate for returning students aged 15 to 24 rose to 17.4%, the highest since June 2009, excluding the pandemic. Young teenagers were hit hardest, with people aged 15 to 16 facing an unemployment rate of 27.8%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from last year.
Part-time positions accounted for most of the revenue in June, adding 70,000 jobs. Employment in the private sector (+47,000) and public sector (+23,000) also increased.
Most of the proceeds are concentrated in wholesale and retail trade (+34,000), health care and social assistance (+17,000) and manufacturing (+10,000). The agency noted that jobs in the agricultural sector fell by 6,000, while jobs “have little changed in other industries.”
Average hourly wages rose 3.2% year-on-year to $36.01, down slightly from May’s 3.4% growth.
BMO’s Benjamin Reitzes was happy with the data this morning, but strikingly: “One of the arguable flaw is that most of the benefits are in part-time jobs. No matter how you cut things, this report is better than expected.”
Threats and CPI risks are expected to remain BOC
While the number of workers exceeded expectations this morning, economists are viewing data from a broader perspective, including recent tariff threats and broader economic risks.
Nathan Janzen of Royal Bank of Canada believes this morning’s data is largely positive, although not enough to eliminate the cold compared to last year, especially with the recent tariff threat looming.
“The Canadian labor market is still much weaker than a year ago, as weaknesses are concentrated in sectors and parts of the country that are more sensitive to disruptions to international trade,” he wrote. “Trade risks remain in Canada, with more countries starting in August with the threatened new tariff hikes from the U.S. government.”
Meanwhile, Rebirth points to ongoing economic uncertainty, a check on this morning’s strong employment data that he believes may raise some suspicion. While he believes the economy is “just staying there for the time being, awaiting the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations”, he does not expect Canadian banks to take action given the potential inflation in Canada.
“Unless next week’s June CPI report (which looks unlikely) will see a sharp drop in potential inflation, the strength of today’s work data and the recent increase in uncertainty on the trade front could keep the BOC on the sidelines when it meets later this month,” he wrote.
Judge Katherine of CIBC has made it clearer about the BOC’s upcoming decision and pointed out that the full impact of tariffs may not have been shown in the data.
“Bank of Canada will stop again in July with this report,” she wrote. “However, this investigation is turbulent and can easily reverse the advantages of June in the coming months, as we suspect that the entire tariff loss has not been fully captured in the data.”
After the release, Canada’s 5-year bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 3.00%, while the 10-year yield rose by 7 basis points to 3.48%.
Unemployment rate by age group
191 visits today, 191 visits
Canadian banks cuts Benjamin Reitzes boc economic data economic indicators economic news employment number mortgage dashboard Statcan Statcan Statcan STATCAN Employment Statcan Canada Statca Canada job unemployment rate
Last modified: July 11, 2025
