The economic calendar for this week: housing data, BOC surveys, and more

Next week will bring some key economic issuances in Canada, which will shed light on housing, lending conditions and overall economic momentum.

This week’s economic calendar has some key housing figures to watch out for, including housing starts and building permits. These reports first examine construction trends and can hint at how developers feel about the market, especially as higher mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand.

We will also look at commercial lending conditions through a survey of senior lending officials at Bank of Canada, which will shed light on the current level of credit tension or easing, a key factor in the ongoing economic uncertainty of businesses.

Here is something to watch:

Thursday, May 15 – Housing Begins (April 8:15 ET)

Housing begins with an early look at new residential buildings, key parts of the housing market, and key indicators of broader economic health.

In March, the total value of residential building permits driven by Ontario’s sharp decline (-13.7%) fell by 8.3% to $6.5 billion, although the total value of Quebec (+7.3%) and Saskatchewan (+10.3%) fell.

This callback suggests that builders may slow down new projects due to the affordability of higher borrowing costs. However, the long-term trends are still mixed together, with 260,200 new units authorized over the past 12 months. (April consensus forecast: 235,000 SAAR)

Wednesday, May 14 – Building Permit (March, 8:30 AM EST)

Building permits are the main indicators of future construction and economic activities. In February, the total value of construction permits issued by Canada rose 2.9% to C$13.1 billion, driven by a strong rebound in the non-residential sector. British Columbia’s non-resident permit surged by $657.7 million, thanks in large part to major projects in the Vancouver area. The commercial component increased by $390 million, while institutional licenses climbed by $248.8 million.

However, in terms of residential use, British Columbia’s multi-family projects ($185.5 million) and Quebec (-$131.5 million) offset Ontario’s earnings (+$110.2 million), allowing a 2.9% drop to $8.4 billion. Nationwide, the number of new multi-family authorized units has dropped to 21,000 units, a 7.1% drop from January, while single-family homes total 4,800 units.

Friday, May 16 – BOC Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q1, 10:30 a.m. ET)

This quarterly survey captured insights into lending conditions and lending needs in the Canadian financial system. The fourth-quarter survey pointed out that lending standards and cautious credit demand reflect increased economic uncertainty.

Thursday, May 15 – Existing Home Sales and MLS House Price Index (April 9 ET)

Canada’s resale home market continued to cool in March, with national home sales down 4.8% in the month, extending a series of declines, now totaling 20% ​​since November 2024. On a non-seasonal adjustment basis, full-year sales fell by 9.3%, the lowest total since 2009.

Prices have also been shortened, with the National Compound MLS® House Price Index (HPI) falling by 2.1% in the month and a year ago. Meanwhile, the national average sales price fell 3.7% year-on-year to $678,331.

Inventory situations have also changed, with the number of newly listed properties increasing by 3% in March, while the national sales-to-new listing ratio fell to 45.9%, the lowest since February 2009, indicating a more balanced market.

May 12, 2025