U.S. mineral and food supply chain loopholes could complicate and increase costs for the U.S. industry and its consumers.
Tariffs – Taxes imposed on imported goods – create uncertainty in the market in 2025. President Trump’s use of tariffs represents a bold deviation from the free trade system over the past 40 years, in order to create what the White House calls “Mutual trade“More balanced U.S. interests. Although China has been subject to tariffs since the first Trump administration, the president has also imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, currently the two largest trading partners of the United States. The president also discussed tariffs on the EU.
With this in mind, NationalBusinesscapital.com examines the current vulnerability of domestic industries to foreign and domestic tariffs. Report discovery The greatest vulnerability in mining and agriculture is the service sectors such as education services, arts and retail trade. No industry is completely immune.
Even industries that do not directly import or export goods (such as health care services) are exposed to trade in the form of pharmaceuticals and equipment manufactured overseas. Time will tell how long the trade war has continued, and how quickly domestic industries can adapt to and even seize the opportunities created by such strategies.
Although the report examines the impact of the industry rather than the consumer, at least in the short term, the cost of supplying chains and disruptions to supply chains often raise prices for the end consumer. For example, consumers who buy toys for their children from the retail trade industry may absorb tariffs from Canadian and/or Chinese-made goods. Whether these costs are ultimately offset by wages and job creation, improving efficiency and the funds collected through the tariffs themselves will all be related to the endurance of such foreign policy strategies.
Key Discovery
- Mining may be the key vulnerability of the United States in a long trade war: The United States has gone out of its way to reduce its dependence on other countries, but imports large amounts of wood, major metals and non-metallic minerals from other countries. These materials represent supply chain vulnerability even for industries that do not directly import them (such as construction). Rare earths (such as key components in high-tech products such as smartphones) are still Mainly from China.
- Food price fluctuations may be: The United States grew and nurtured most of its food, but produced meat from Mexico and Canada, as well as specialty products from the EU. As the dependence on foreign food decreases, U.S. food prices may become more susceptible to seasonal fluctuations. For example, the highly-watched avocado toast may become more expensive due to tariffs on Mexican avocados.
- Service sectors are usually good…provided that economic establishment: Knowledge work, in addition to some minor vulnerabilities associated with trade tools such as computers and electronics, is often less dependent on foreign inputs and is often not dependent on large exports from other countries. Nevertheless, these industries do not exist in a vacuum. Investors related to fires (financial, insurance, real estate, rental) projects may be hit by a shortage of materials that affect the building.
Methodology
To create our rankings, we selected 17 important industry clusters defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). We chose five indicators to estimate the industry is negatively affected by tariffs in the near term. For each metric, the industry gets a ranking and is then weighted, normalized and aggregated to create 100 total scores. Industry with higher vulnerability earned higher scores.
There are some prudent applicability: This report examines existing supply chains and export outputs at the time of writing and presents us and retaliatory tariffs. It does not take into account the general economic conditions that could affect industries such as recessions and may even lead to tariffs that may result in longer trade wars.
The metrics we selected and their weight are:
% Imported Goods Use and Secondary Vulnerabilities (60%): These indicators combine to measure an industry’s dependence on foreign goods. Data on imports come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis in 2023 Import matrix. Data on commodity use comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Usage table. The figures are used to estimate the industry’s overall dependence on imports.
If the industry does not use a large amount of imports directly (for example, construction is not directly imported materials), but instead purchases materials from domestic sources with foreign suppliers, this is a secondary loophole calculated based on important commodities in its supply chain.
Exports as a percentage of total output (25%): Although the United States imports in total are more than exports, some industries rely more on selling to foreign markets than others. Countries affected by new U.S. tariffs threaten to impose retaliatory tariffs, which will affect the ability of U.S. goods to compete in these markets. Data comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis in 2023 Dining table.
Trade Partners 1 and 2 (15%): These indicators identify key trading partners in the industry. The relative weight is allocated to partners based on political rhetoric, size and scope of proposed tariffs. The weight of these indicators is informed USITCthis US Censusand news.
5 industries that may be hurt by tariffs
1. mining
Score (100 points): 82.3 (1st)
No U.S. industry relies on foreign input, not mining. More than half of the $307.6 million used in 2023 (1) came from another country (in the form of oil and gas extraction, the vast majority of which), most of which came from Canada, are currently under 25% tariff threat. The industry is also exposed to China, especially in rare earths. The proposed tariff rate for Chinese goods is lower at 20%, but is more likely to be borne for a long time.
Similarly, the United States is also a net energy exporter (first), which may have a downstream impact on domestic production. Given its importance to national security, exemptions are more likely than most other industries, but in the worst case scenario, Tit-for-Tat upgrades of reciprocity tariffs could cut a lot of noses to cover up the face.
2. Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
Score (100, respectively): 79.3 (2nd)
Although the country is not at risk of hunger, some staple foods in the U.S. diet may soon be under enormous pricing pressure.
The United States grew and cultivated most of its own food, but foreign investment accounts for more than 10% of the goods used in the industry (second place). It exports almost (fourth place), making domestic agriculture more susceptible to reciprocity tariffs than most industries. The United States is known to rely on Mexico’s dependence on tomatoes, avocados, peppers, and many fruits and vegetables. A large amount of beef, pork and canola oil are imported from Canada. Both neighbors face 25% tariffs.
3. manufacture
Score (100, respectively): 70.6 (3rd)
From an encouragement of domestic production, tariffs may be a boon for American manufacturing in the long run. However, in the short term, there are indeed some huge loopholes in the U.S. manufacturing industry in its supply chain (the second), especially the investments in the mining (first) and agricultural sectors (the second), for durable and non-durable commodities, respectively. This makes the manufacturing sector indirectly vulnerable to tariffs from China, Mexico and even Canada.
Compared with most industries, U.S. manufacturers are also more dependent on foreign markets, selling nearly 15% across borders (2).
4. Transportation and warehouse
Score (100, respectively): 68.4 (4th)
Mobility is the name of the transportation department game, which means energy consumption and replacement parts for air, rail, water and truck vehicles. The industry is relatively less exposed to foreign investments (about 2.2%, fourth), with air transport being the most vulnerable of the four. Mexico is threatened by a 25% tariff and is a major trading partner in terms of vehicle parts. Supply chain vulnerability to support infrastructure may also be a problem due to secondary reliance on wholesale trade.
Transportation and warehousing are also vulnerable to reciprocity tariffs, with exports of only 8% of their output (Sixth).
5. Wholesale trade
Score (100, respectively): 63.9 (5th)
Wholesale trade mainly consists of B2B transactions and can purchase many commodities used in other industries. Therefore, it depends not only on the direct input of its basic function, but also in the form of resale goods it purchased to be exposed to secondary inputs (5), many of which are downstream from manufacturing (3) and transportation (4). This includes many products from China and Mexico, facing 20% and 25% tariffs, respectively. Reciprocal tariffs are also a threat here, with the industry almost 10% of exports (third time).
The speed at which the industry can transfer from domestic and foreign sources to goods will be key, and the demands of its customers will also be ongoing demand.
The least fragile industry
13. Company and enterprise management
Score (100, respectively): 49.2
The management is mainly a local service, so it has little direct dependence on imported goods. However, it has a large secondary dependence on computers and electronic products (Part 5), which are heavily exposed to overseas supply chains.
14. Administrative and Waste Management Services
Score (100 points): 48.6
Like management, administrative services and waste management are largely internal. Foreign investment in the industry (8th) mainly appears in the form of vehicle parts and chemicals.
15. Educational Services
Score (100, respectively): 45.9
Educational services are provided primarily by domestic institutions, with most of their foreign dependencies (10th) appearing in the form of professional support services and international students.
16. Art, Entertainment and Entertainment
Score (100 points): 43.5
Although easily affected by recession, art, entertainment and entertainment, it does not rely on imported goods (9th place), and not all rely on foreign markets outside of major Hollywood blockbusters (14th place).
17. Retail Trade
Score (100, respectively): 42.1
Retail trade is primarily used to end consumers rather than businesses or institutions, with great flexibility in purchasing goods and passing costs to the end consumer expenses. Although it does face important indirect supply chain issues (fifth), exports and reciprocal tariffs are not many issues (fifth).
