Most traders of British anemia are bet on interest rates formulated by Bank of England, but next Thursday will reduce basic interest rates from 4.75 % next Thursday.
The market pricing is 84 % of the opportunity to reduce at the first meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee this year, and then twice reduced it in 2025.
Both Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank predict that the committee will vote at 8-1 to increase the tax rate by 0.25 % to 4.50 %.
The current economic data set is frustrating. After shrinkage in October and September, the British economy was driven by November, and the construction industry and the construction industry rose 0.1 % in November.
The inflation rate is 2.5 %, which is higher than the central bank’s 2 % target.
The inflation rate of core services dropped from 5 % to 4.4 %, but in the three months of November, the salary of the private sector rose from 5.5 % in the three months as of October to 6 %.
Nine monetary policy committees have long stated that it hopes to see service inflation and wage growth of less than 5 %, and then reduce the reduction rate. However, the market believes that interest rate settings will hold nose and vote for support.
James Moberly, an analyst at Godman Sachs, acknowledged that the Monetary Policy Commission “faces a difficult balance method”, saying that the rising and weak pounds may promote Inflation rate increases the inflation rate to resist air.
Sanjay Raja, a senior economist of Deutsche Bank, added that the meeting next week “will not be calculated” because the rate settings will have to be “disappointing to a large extent Update its economic forecast in the activity data. “
The German Bank predicts that the agency will “reduce its recent GDP, increase its recent consumer price index prediction and increase its unemployment rate prediction in 2025.”
Sarah Coles, the person in charge of Hargreaves Lansdown, concluded that if the tax rate is reduced next week, the mortgage holder “will not dance on the street.”
Coles added: “If your fixed price, it will not move a lot overnight, because the market is already largely priced.
“At present, MoneyFacts data shows that the average value of fixed interest rate mortgage loans has increased from 5.48 % at the beginning of the year to 5.52 %.
“It may fall again in the next few days, but it is reported that the interest rate of mortgage loans may return to a month ago, which is unlikely to unlock the gate.”
