How can COVID-19 affect future employment, income and OASI claims? – Retirement Research Center

Abstract

Policy makers, advocates and scholars continue to pay attention to the medium and long-term influence of COVID-19. In view of the importance of health in work, making money, and final collection of OASI welfare decisions, even after the epidemic is officially ended, the new crown pneumonia may have a long -term impact on SSA management plans. To this end, this report explores how the new crown epidemic affects the health of Americans and their employment, income and OASI claims since the outbreak of the outbreak. The point is two main channels. First of all, the interruption of medical and health supply in large episodes may delay or prevent the required care. Secondly, infection may lead to a series of acute and chronic diseases, the so -called long -term new crown pneumonia.

In order to test these pipelines, the analysis focuses on the middle and late stages of career, that is, people who are between 50 and 75 years old at the beginning of 2020. Health and Retirement Research (HRS) is a national representative survey for people 50 and over, and conducts interviews every two years until death. HRS is an excellent source of data that resolves health and employment over time.

There are many main discoveries:

• Nearly one -third of the people of this age have experienced medical care interruptions during the period of popularity. Among them The highest incidence is the highest.
• After considering the extensive population factors, the health status before the epidemic, the scope of insurance, and the employment status before the epidemic, the possibility of medical care interruption and the possibility of employment in the later stage of the epidemic.
• At that time, the interruption of the normal supply of healthcare was largely beyond the scope of personal control, but for the employment evolution of the labor market after the epidemic, this may not be an important issue.
• As of July 2024, 16% of the American adults between the ages of 50 and 75 have long been infected with new crown viruses, of which 5% are currently suffering from this disease.
• After considering a series of population factors, health status before popular, insurance coverage, and employment status before the popularity, women and people with high education level are more likely to infect the new crown virus for a long time. Essence Those who suffer from cardiopulmonary disease, arthritis and depression before they are popular are also more likely to get sick.
• The possibility of long -term personal employment in the post -epidemic is reduced by 9 percentage points. In 2018, before the outbreak of the epidemic, about half of the 50 to 75 -year -old population had a job. Therefore, the employment caused by the long -term new crown epidemic is 9 percentage points, which is a substantial economic reduction.
• As of 2023, the impact of long -term crown epidemic on OASDI claims has rarely had a significant impact in statistics.